Needlenose

I wrote at my part-time gig elsewhere last week:

The frightening upshot of Mitt Romney’s clear path to the Republican nomination for the White House is that it might as well be the fall of 2012 right now.

Making full use of their respective, nearly limitless warchests, both the Romney and Obama campaigns will spend the next ten months carpet-bombing each other in the media in hopes of framing the presidential race in their favor.

Recognizing that the general election campaign was indeed about to begin, however mind-numbingly early, both sides spent the past few days test-driving their respective spins–specifically, with regard to Romney’s corporate-vampire past.  On Wednesday, Romney took this tack (via TPM):

(photo: Gage Skidmore)

QUESTIONER: Did you suggest that anyone who questions the policies and practices of Wall Street and financial institutions, anyone who has questions about the distribution of wealth and power in this country, is envious? Is it about jealousy, or fairness?

ROMNEY: You know, I think it’s about envy. I think it’s about class warfare. When you have a president encouraging the idea of dividing America based on 99 percent versus one percent, and those people who have been most successful will be in the one percent, you have opened up a wave of approach in this country which is entirely inconsistent with the concept of one nation under God.

Here, Mitt is betting on a long-recognized characteristic that has benefited Republicans: working-class voters can be coaxed into sympathy for policies that favor the wealthy because they personally aspire to be (or, at least, idly wish they were) wealthy themselves.

Obviously, Team Obama’s riposte sought to push a much different frame:

Our economic crisis and endemic income inequality were caused in large part by a few who put profits over people. Taking advantage of an uneven playing field, where there was one rulebook for those at the top and another for everyone else, Mitt Romney and his friends made money hand over fist while working families lost their grip on the middle-class lifestyle they earned.

Between now and November the American people will decide whether to respond to this crisis by electing a corporate raider who profited from – and promises to restore – the conditions that caused it…

Underneath this verbiage aimed at creating or destroying sympathy for the GOP economic agenda, there will be a more basic conflict at play: how good or bad the economy actually is as 2012 progresses, and whether voters think Romney has any real ability to make things better.

President Obama’s ability to influence the former is almost over, leaving the latter as the major issue to fight about.  An email from Obama strategist David Axelrod to Greg Sargent provides an interesting hint about this:

Last week [Romney] said “productivity equals income.”

But the point is, it hasn’t for the typical American worker over the last three decades, and, particularly, over the last decade.

This is the central challenge of our time, and he doesn’t get it.

That’s a surprisingly wonky way to define a “central challenge” for a political campaign, but there’s a reason for it.  The underlying message from Romney’s side is going to be, you may not like me or even think I’m ethical, but I know how the world of money works — and I can use that knowledge to get the economy going again.

Judging from Axelrod’s email, Team Obama has a different take.  They think Romney’s flat, obviously scripted rhetoric shows (and, more importantly, will continue to show voters) that he doesn’t really get how the economy works… which opens the door for all the suspicions about only being interested in enriching himself through a rigged system.

In short, Axelrod et al. think they can win the race by betting on Romney to expose himself as not much brighter than Rick Perry or Sarah Palin.  Might not be a bad plan.

(Cross-posted at Firedoglake. Thanks to Greg Sargent for the shout-out!)

With Halloween coming up on Monday, there’s going to be a lot of grown-ups attending masquerade parties this weekend. Which, unfortunately, has meant a lot of long, last-minute lines in crowded costume stores — including the one in Washington, D.C., where all the Republican presidential candidates went shopping earlier this week.

As you might expect, they all wanted to dress up as Ronald Reagan, but someone had already snatched that up before the GOP contenders got there… and things just got uglier as they all scrambled for other choices.

Michele Bachmann took the easiest route, deciding to go as Bat Boy.

Jon Huntsman settled for being the Invisible Man.  (Some thought Tim Pawlenty did, too, but it turned out he didn’t stay long enough to buy a costume.)

All of his fellow candidates wanted Ron Paul to be the Invisible Man, but he kept asking if he could be Ross Perot.  Amid all the crosstalk, he wound up as Perot’s crazy aunt in the basement.

Sarah Palin, who showed up even though she isn’t running, opted for Norma Desmond in Sunset Boulevard.

Herman Cain decided to go as Sarah Palin, but people are just beginning to figure that out.

Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich both wanted to be Elmer Gantry, which resulted in a terrible fight where they tore the costume in half.  Perry completed his outfit with a cowboy get-up once worn by George Bush — and when he worried people might recognize it, he dyed a Jimmy Carter wig to put on top of it all.  Newt combined his half with a science-fiction robot costume.

Mitt Romney took the same concept way too far, stitching together pieces from so many different costumes that no one really knows who he’s trying to be.

(Adapted from a post at Firedoglake.  Tip of the ‘Nose to Green Boy for his suggestions!)

(Image by Oliver Willis.)

I have bad news for all of you election/schadenfreude junkies out there… like all good things, Newt Gingrich Humiliation Week is drawing to a close.  Yes, there may be a few last sparks from whatever Sunday talkfest Newt is gracing with his presence this weekend, and he’ll continue trudging through the small towns of New Hampshire and other early primary/caucus states next week.  Between the media’s gnat-like attention span and a presumed (if woefully late) improvement in message discipline by Gingrich and his press secretary, though, most of the fun probably has already been had.

The good news, however, is that starting Monday, it will be Tim Pawlenty‘s turn in the barrel… with Michelle Bachmann lining up a possible announcement toward the end of the week, and Jon Huntsman claiming dibs for sometime in June.

It’s downright considerate for the Republican presidential wannabes to present themselves to the public like this — one after the other, close together but evenly spaced like… um, well, like the revolving ducks in a shooting gallery.

Which probably isn’t how they envisioned it, of course.  Given the amount of hubris involved in thinking one has a shot at the White House, the candidates and their staffs likely imagine it as more like scheduling the big opening weekend of a Hollywood movie.  You know, the kind of thing where you want to have the spotlight of public attention all to yourself.

Unfortunately, running for the GOP presidential nod isn’t quite like that.  It means subjecting yourself to the crossfire of multiple litmus tests, struggling to differentiate yourself from your competitors even as you all pander to the same interest groups, practicing your dog-whistle techniques… in short, advertising your unlimited affection for the fiercest lunacies of your party’s base (a group with more collective resentments than common sense) while trying to simultaneously hide it from any sane voters who may be watching.

No wonder it goes so badly for so many of them.

(Cross-posted at Firedoglake.)

A couple of weeks ago, a trashy movie was released that hypothesized the year 2012 would see all sorts with unspeakable catastrophes unleashed, in keeping with a supposed ancient Mayan prophecy.

Kind of a ridiculous premise.  But then again (via CNN):

A new group wants former Vice President Dick Cheney back in the White House.

The organization – “Draft Dick Cheney 2012″ – launched on Friday, and unveiled their new Web site. Their aim: To convince the former vice president to seek the Republican presidential nomination in the next race for the White House….

“The 2012 race for the Republican nomination for President will be about much more then who will be the party’s standard bearer against Barack Obama, the race is about the heart and soul of the GOP,” said Christopher Barron, one of the organizers of the Draft Cheney movement. “There is only one person in our party with the experience, political courage and unwavering commitment to the values that made our party strong – and that person is Dick Cheney.”

Few people take this seriously, of course.  As I noted back in September, this draft-Dick chatter is just a facade to justify the continuing media presence of his daughter, Liz (lest anyone ask, “Why, exactly, are you relevant?”) as she unsubtly positions herself for a future electoral career.

But as long as they’re going to play this game, it seems reasonable that we should call their bluff.  If Liz Cheney’s going to keep getting invited onto the cable talk shows and the public-speaking circuit based on the excuse that her dad might run for the White House, some noisy folks should start insisting on equal time for the questions Dick Cheney would have to answer if he weren’t too cowardly to show his own face in an open forum.

You know, the implausible amnesia, the sleeping on the job (literally and figuratively), the evidence hidden in safes intended for classified information, etc… anyone want to start compiling the list?

If he wants to haunt our nightmares, there’s no reason we shouldn’t try to haunt his.

(Cross-posted at Firedoglake.)

I tried to explain to you all where the ubiquity of Liz Cheney was headed…

Apparently bored already with the current occupant, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen of Politico cast a wistful eye this morning at “some surprising names” among Republicans who might try to take back the White House in 2012:

Some major donors and GOP strategists have approached Joe Scarborough, the host of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” about a national run, according to party sources.

Former Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole of Kansas, the Republican nominee in 1996, told POLITICO that he would like to see Army four-star Gen. David Petraeus — the head of the U.S. Central Command, which includes Iraq and Afghanistan — run for president as a latter-day Ike

I can see the slogan now: “Petraeus 2012 — The General Who Won That War We Didn’t Really Win and Everyone’s Stopped Thinking About.”

The other names floated in this “expansive search for more options” are even less inspiring, and it’s no surprise. The Republican party has been so obviously uninterested in solving people’s problems for so long that it can’t create any compelling spokespeople. All the GOP knows is short-term distractions and hissy fits, and it’s hard to build a career on that substantial enough to launch a presidential bid.

As a result, Republicans have only succeeded by finding a telegenic, faux-folksy frontperson to distract the public from the party’s true agenda. Hence the Reaganite mantle was inherited not by an experienced conservative politician, but by George W. Bush, who was a clean slate in terms of substance but came with built-in name recognition and could fake an ordinary-guy persona. From there it’s just a short step to smiling nonentities like Sarah Palin being convinced that they’re the party’s future.

Which, ironically, makes this my favorite part of the Politico puff piece:

Liz Cheney, a State Department official in the Bush administration, said it is “absolutely” possible for a Republican to win the presidency in 2012.

“The independents who were so critical will come back to the Republican Party when they realize, as they’re coming to realize, that we’re the ones that can be trusted both on the economy and on national security,” she said. “So the substance is a lot more important than: Is it this person? Is it that person?”

One such person floated in a column in The Wall Street Journal is none other than her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney. That’s not happening, though it’s sometimes hard to tell with his frequent appearances and sharp political rhetoric.

When asked if it’s even plausible, she replied: “I think no. I mean, I’d love for it to. But no.”

No, I’m not intrigued by the possibility of the Dark Lord summoning himself from his lair to campaign. What’s amusing and coy about this is that the Cheney who might run — in 2016 if not 2012 — is Liz herself.

Seriously. Think Sarah Palin, with a stronger foreign policy background. (Not a plausible foreign policy background, of course — but like I said, for the Republicans, there’s only so much to choose from.) Or a blonde, female Dubya.

Mark my words, it could happen.

(Cross-posted at Firedoglake.)

In the article linked in the caption contest below, CNN reports on Sarah Palin’s trip home to vote:

Savoring her final solo appearance as a vice presidential candidate, Palin lingered for several minutes in front of local and national media, taking question after question despite multiple attempts by her staff to end the press conference. . .

An hour later . . . a local reporter asked the governor how she envisions her role in national politics if McCain loses the election. Palin did not hesitate to muse about a future that might not include being vice president come January.

“You know, if there is a role in national politics it won’t be so much partisan,” she said. “My efforts have always been here in the state of Alaska to get everybody to unite and work together and progress this state.”

“It would certainly be a uniter type of role,” she added.

Tonight is the first night of the Palin 2012 campaign, and in her typical hamfisted, buzzword-heavy style, she’s already beginning the image makeover I envisioned yesterday.

I wouldn’t be surprised if after spending the last two months evading impromptu TV interviews where she might be asked embarrassing questions about the issues, Palin is all over the airwaves tonight now that the subject will be something she cares more about — herself and her political future.

Update 1: (7:35 pm PT) Will Palin be the one who gives the formal concession announcement as McCain sulks silently in defeat?

Update 2: (8:35 pm PT) Okay, scratch that thought.

Hey… remember that investigation that found Sarah Palin had abused her power in Alaska by trying (along with her husband) to get her brother-in-law fired from his job as a state trooper?  You probably do, but just barely, right?  For better or worse, there’s just too much else going on with regard to the election to obsess over a minor scandal like that.

Palin seems to think differently, though.  Via Progressive Alaska, the second investigation into the trooper brouhaha — you know, the one Palin initiated herself to obscure the first one — has seen fit to announce its findings on election eve.   Not surprisingly, it clears Palin in every conceivable way.

But since (to put it gently) the election isn’t exactly hanging in the balance over this issue, why was it so important to get the announcement in before tomorrow night’s vote-counting?  To put it simply, because the end of the 2008 race marks the first day of the 2012 campaign… for Palin, anyway.

Particularly if McCain/Palin and other Republicans absorb their expected collective defeat early in the evening, there will be hours of pundit speculation that could shape the early conventional wisdom about possible Republican contenders for the ’12 nomination.  Tonight’s report is a bit of housecleaning to give Palin’s advocates one more talking point — if anyone mentions the ethical cloud over her record as governor of Alaska, they can now claim that it’s been dispersed.

And Atrios and Josh Marshall‘s skepticism notwithstanding, I wouldn’t discount Palin’s chances of mounting a comeback in four years, even if she and McCain lose in a landslide tomorrow.  I wrote four years ago about the GOP’s dim prospects in 2008 because they lacked a candidate who could pull of the Reagan trick of putting an unthreatening face on the permanent Republican agenda of shoveling more money to rich people/corporations — someone who pretend to be “just folks” but also had high name recognition so their personality could overshadow their (plutocratic) policies.

Palin is not only aware of this role, she’s openly auditioned to fill it, simultaneously cultivating the support of GOP opinionmakers along with her faux-outsider image (as documented extensively by Jane Mayer in the New Yorker).

So what if she’s seen as a know-nothing object of ridicule who helped drag McCain down to defeat?  Thanks to Bill Kristol and Tina Fey, she’s got the name recognition she’ll need, and four years is plenty of time for a Nixon-style reinvention.  If she’s willing to do the homework of developing at least a superficial knowledge of the issues. she can position herself as being wiser but still in touch with her “hockey mom” roots.

Granted, though, that’s a big if.  Her current running mate couldn’t be bothered with learning anything beyond slogans about economic policy even as the Wall Street meltdown all but handed Obama the presidency, and the GOP nominee before him — the one who’s in the White House now — well, we know all about his dislike of thinking about anything.

If Palin’s as narcissistic as McCain and Bush, she may very well flame out before the presidential cycle gets serious in 2012.  But if her searing ambition is matched by any kind of work ethic, I’d say we haven’t heard the last of her.