Needlenose

Here we are again, ethnic majority actively colonizing a region full of ethnic minorities, promulgating harsh assimilationist policies and then acting surprised when said minority takes to the streets and fights back.  In this case, it’s the Han-Chinese dominated PRC versus the Uighurs in their Western Provinces.

Typically, the PRC fabricated some story about how the Uighurs started it all, blocked any unofficial accounts, and blamed everything on Islamic extremism, terrorism and outside agitators meddling in Chinese internal affairs.  A former Uighur political prisoner provides an alternative, and in my view a more highly likely accounting of the events that lead to the recent riots.

Why do I consider this more likely?  From stories I’ve heard and things I’ve read.  For example, a buddy of mine went to a University in Xian for a couple of years in the early 80s.  At the school were numerous African students.  One night, an African student was seen getting too chummy with a Chinese girl in town.  A vigilante mob armed with various clubs and implements ran around town looking for Africans to beat up.  The students retreated to the dorms and they were locked down for the night, and a curfew was imposed until things calmed down.

In another adventure travel book I read, the author recalled hiring a truck out of Urumchi heading East.  Their young driver didn’t have a truck driving permit.  The truck was stopped, and the driver was hauled out of the car and beaten with truncheons for a few minutes. 

This situation is an familiar slow-motion train wreck.  You’d think some leader, somewhere, would reflect for a minute about the situation in Eastern Turkey with Turks vs. Kurds, or Isreal and it’s occupation of the West Bank, but no.  The PRC followed up on the rights with repressive measures, gunning down Uighur protestors.  I’m sure things will quiet down for a bit, but there are now hundreds of grieving and angry Uighur families out there who won’t forget this anytime soon.

It’s one thing to pick on the Buddhist Tibetans – they aren’t known for suicide bombings and jihads.  The Uighurs certainly aren’t Wahabi wing nuts, but shoot at them and beat them enough and you’ll end up with an Al Qaeda of Western China in no time.

So instead of working with local Uighur leaders (if there actually are any!) to reverse hateful assimilation and colonization policies and trying to mediate the situation, they just pull out the old violent playbook and wave the train on down the track.

Several years ago I suggested that the Kurds could negotiate a deal with Turkey to gain their support for an independent Kurdish state (sorry, haven’t restored those old posts yet).  One of the conditions I had laid out was that Kurdish leaders disavow the Kurdish separatist movement in Turkey.

In fact, it looks like they may be going one step further, and helping negotiate a disarmament of the PKK.  Don’t get distracted by Talabani muttering his support of Iraqi Federalism towards the end of the article, he’s just giving lip service to the concept – I think Barzani’s grumbling over an increasing Iraqi army presence in the ‘disputed zones’ of Kurdistan to be  a better indication of where things stand in that regards.

If Obama is set on leaving troops in the region, and remains attached to the Iraqi Federalism concept, he might consider putting the bulk of the troops in the Kurdish north.

*Update* Turkey ‘acknowledges existance of’ Kurdish Regional Government

I’ve touched on this topic in recent blogs, but I thought it would be useful to summarize why this war is unwinnable. Although the original causus belli changed weekly and our win conditions were never really spelled out, we can infer the final objectives based upon White House pronouncements and consider their attainability.

Regime Change/Iraqi Freedom
Bush demanded loudly and repeatedly for the removal of Saddam and the Baath party; in fact, this was his final ultimatum before the invasion. Now that Saddam and his cronies are nowhere to be found, and U.S. troops are occupying his palaces, we’ve won, right?

Well the problem lies in the ‘change’ part of the objective. Dubya promised a rapid handover to a democratically elected Iraqi goverment within 6 months (conveniently timed around the November elections!), with a total occupation of 18 months. Now the White House is grudgingly admitting that setting up an alternative regime might take a bit longer than 6 months, presumably pushing out the 18-month milestone as well.

But questions of timing aside, the real devil lies in the details – what constitutes an acceptable alternative regime? Dubya has promised to “ensure that one brutal dictator is not replaced by another,” a caveat later expanded by Rumsfeld to preclude either a pro-Iranian regime or an Iran-style Islamic Republic. The difficulty is that the overwhelming majority of the country are deeply religious Shiites (who are already consolidating their power without U.S. help) who have made it abundantly clear in huge, angry focus groups (Bush-speak for demonstrations) that they want an Islamic brand of democracy and will reject any goverment supported by the U.S. This sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.

Territorial Integrity
Last year, Bush committed to preserving Iraq’s territorial integrity, in an attempt to get buy-in from the U.N. and to avoid antagonizing fellow NATO member Turkey. Sure to disrupt Bush’s plans is the fact that the Kurds have other ideas. With little opposition from the few U.S. troops in the region, the heavily armed and organized Kurds have been ethnically cleansing Arabs from Kurdish territory. They will probably content themselves with pay-back reprisals against Arabs and Turks until such time as a new target presents itself in the form of troops from a new, Arab-dominated regime intent on asserting authority in the region. At that point, they’ll stop paying lip-service to ‘regional autonomy’ and will launch a full-blown civil war against Baghdad and any occupation troops that might stand in their way.

Disarming Saddam/Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)
The rapid breakup of the Iraqi army has left vast amounts of guerilla war-ready arms and munitions in the hands of the populace, including suspected Baath loyalists. As far as the supposed WMD, what possible motive could Saddam have for destroying them on the eve of a U.S. invasion as Dubya recently asserted (he must think Americans are really dumb)? best case, they never existed outside the delusions of the wrong-wing, worst case, they’re now in the hands of terrorists. Smooth move, Dubya!

Winning the ‘Hearts & Minds’ of the Iraqi people & the ‘Arab Street’
First impressions are hard to shake. How seriously can they take American rhetoric after the abject failure of Jay Garner and the occupation to date? My bet is Humpty Dumpty has already had his great fall, and there’s nothing Viceroy Bremer can do to ‘put him back together again.’

Striking a Blow Against Terrorism
Give me a break!

Conclusion?