“We’ve heard a lot of brouhaha about successes on the security front,” he said. “Where are these successes?”

Good question.  Seems like things are heading South again, with increasingly brazen attacks reminiscent of the Groundhog Days of ’04 and ’05.

In the same post, Juan Cole discusses how affairs between the Kurds and the rest of Iraq are heating up around the flashpoint Kirkuk.  Those of you who aren’t afflicted with American Amnesia might remember how we called Kirkuk out as a flashpoint way back when, and how the Kurds have been continuously working to reclaim demographics and control on the ground in this oil-rich city.

I guess with Obama shifting his focus on our other failing occupation, and with our gradual troop removal the Petreus plan to stabilize the Iraqi Civil War is slowly and painfully coming off, like a band-aid on a hairy leg.

I was concerned as far back as November 2003 that there were elements within Iraq that would like to keep us around and might carry out actions that would make it difficult or impossible for us to leave.

So far it seems that most of the continuing internecine bloodbath is focused around the Kurdistan/Islamic Republic of Iraq divide in ‘swing’ cities Mosul and Kirkuk.  I think the Shi’ites and Kurds will find common cause at some point and that won’t be an impediment to withdrawal.

I don’t think Iranian meddling will be as much of an issue – if the Mullah government doesn’t fall to the Green Revolution, it will certainly be bloodied, and much less inclined to meddle in Iraqi affairs.

So the real question I think will be the Sunni/Shi’ite divide and how soon and to what extent it intensifies.