Needlenose

Always starts like this...

Does the reheating of the North/South Korea conflict, one of the last vestiges of the Cold War, pose the risk of escalating into a Hot War?  It seems like the Koreans are ready to have a go at each other.  Normally bellicose PRC is urging calm in the region, but it appears they have little control over their old puppet state.  Normally (under Obama) peaceful USA gleefully supporting S. Korea sabre-rattling in the form of more military exercises at the flash point.

Japan, meanwhile, seems to have finally woken-up from the threat of China’s recent, rapid military build up of naval & air power (useful primarily for bullying the neighborhood).

My crystal ball is fuzzy here.  If S. Korea sinks a ship or two, does the N. Korean regime go down (much as Great Britain’s Falklands was a positive agent of change in Argentina), or does it spark a fierce counter-attack, dragging first China then the US into a Hot War, followed quickly by actions against Taiwan and disputed territories in the S. China Sea?

China’s bellicosity and military build up smacks up against the Einstein maxim that you can’t simultaneously prevent and prepare for war. The bad news for our allies in the region is that China can most likely kick American ass in any short-term ‘limited’ engagement.  Worse, I doubt that any military action in the region would stay limited – Dear Leader has nukes, and would most likely use them in the case of an existential threat to his state.  No idea if Taiwan (or even Japan for that matter) might have a few secret nukes stashed.

Even a limited regional nuclear exchange would have dramatic climactic consequences.

I’m not really sure there is much the US can do at this point.  If we don’t respond firmly, we go down the path of appeasement, forcing our allies to fend for themselves, almost guaranteeing a disastrous outcome down the road.  At this point, I think it’s pretty much up to China – either they will start acting like adults, tone down the militarism and bellicosity and promote peace in region, or they will continue down their current path and trigger the inevitable showdown.

*Update 12/23/10* I believe Kim Jong Il reads Needlenose, and made sure today that we are all clear that he considers any threat to be an existential threat worthy of going nuclear.

Whale blubber sashimi is a dish best served cold

About fucking time somebody took Japan to court over their nasty commercial whaling.  Kevin Rudd rocks!!!

Whale blubber sashimi is a dish best served cold

It’s being spun as a compromise, but the latest effort to ‘cap’ the annual whale kill on the part of the rogue whaling nations of Japan, Norway and Iceland really comes down to providing an international framework to legitimize the commercial blubber sashimi trade.

I’m with Patrick R. Ramage, global whale program director at the International Fund for Animal Welfare:

“From our point of view, it’s a whaler’s wish list.  It would overturn the ’86 moratorium, eviscerate the South Ocean Whale Sanctuary, subordinate science and I.W.C. precedent to reward countries that have refused to comply by allocating quotas to those three countries.”

Amen, brother, say “No!” to appeasement as did Australia , Tokelau, New Zealand, Fiji and many other Pacific nations.

Not surprising, but irritating nonetheless – heading of CITES at the pass, Japan says they’ll buy and eat the last damn bluefin tuna regardless of scientific research and world opinion.

Where is the Kevin Rudd of the Mediterranean?  The Bob Barker of Bluefin?

Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd tells the Japanese to stop whaling by November 2010.   Good on ya, mate!  Why can’t our Dem leaders grow a pair?

Truth is stranger than fiction! None other than Bob Barker of 70s and 80s TV game show fame has come to the rescue of Sea Shepherd, through a $5 million gift to go buy a boat that won’t get crushed in the ice in Antarctic waters.  And believe it or not, the new ship, the ‘Bob Barker’ has already proven it’s worth – it came to the rescue of several crew members of their little ‘attack’ vessel the Ady Gil after said boat was deliberately rammed by a whaler.

While I like and support Sea Shepherd’s work, I’m no big fan of their founder, Paul Watson.  Case in point, he’s equating the potential end of Japanese Antarctic whaling with the end of commercial whaling:

“Whaling was shut down today,” Sea Shepherd founder Paul Watson said via satellite phone from aboard a nearby ship. “There’s no whaling now and hopefully no whaling after this.”

Well…what about Iceland?  What about Norway?  What about so-called Russian & U.S. “traditional” indigenous whaling?  I think his organization would have a much easier time putting pressure on those countries and shutting down whaling faster than playing faux pirate in the Antarctic waters with the Japanese cast as the only villains.

Anyway, hopefully Bob Barker’s courageous donations will be a clarion call that will inspire other game show hosts to donate additional money and tools to pro-environmental groups…how about a 16 inch/50 caliber Mark 7 naval gun for the new ship?

Did you really think an organization like International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT), run as it is by countries with a vested interest in fishing for tuna would listen to warnings about the collapsing fishery and impending extinction of the fish and take real action and suspend fishing for a few years until the fish population recovers?  Seriously?

It’s like expecting the International Whaling Commission which includes only whaling countries, several of whom subsidize their <strike>commercial</strike> “research” whaling activities to seriously ban whaling – it’s not going to happen.

Why do we carry on these charades?  Well in the absence of a serious transnational authority over oceanic resources, the only way to get these countries to sit at the table is if they are scared that by not participating, somebody else will destroy the last of the ‘stocks’ first.  I guess it’s sort of a tragedy of the commons situation where all the parties sit around regularly and jawbone about the looming tragedy, then just do whatever the fuck they want to during the rest of the year.

At this point the tuna’s only hope appears to be tiny Monaco’s attempt to get CITES to declare the tuna endangered, thus triggering far stricter action on the part of CITES members:

Environmental groups are now backing a call from Monaco for the issue of bluefin tuna to be taken before a March meeting of CITES, an international body that sets rules against illegal wildlife trade, with the aim of declaring the fish endangered and putting a ban on catching it.

In related news, Pacific whales may have some hope not from positive political action but rather from Japanese government funding cuts that may cut the subsidies that keep their ‘research’ vessels in business.

*Update* Check out the Sea Shepherd’s new speedster

*Update 11/17/09* Found this funny South Park parody of Whale Wars – I think that kid may be onto something

*Update 11/18/09* Speaking of overfishing, prepare to say goodbye to this skate