Needlenose

Juan Cole marks today as a critical milestone in the Iraq War, the beginning of the end of the conflict.  He points out a number of issues and potential actions that could bedevil the withdrawal, from a potential uptick in car bombings to Iranian meddling.

I was concerned as far back as November 2003 that there were elements within Iraq that would like to keep us around and might carry out actions that would make it difficult or impossible for us to leave.

So far it seems that most of the continuing internecine bloodbath is focused around the Kurdistan/Islamic Republic of Iraq divide in ’swing’ cities Mosul and Kirkuk.  I think the Shi’ites and Kurds will find common cause at some point and that won’t be an impediment to withdrawal.

I don’t think Iranian meddling will be as much of an issue – if the Mullah government doesn’t fall to the Green Revolution, it will certainly be bloodied, and much less inclined to meddle in Iraqi affairs.

So the real question I think will be the Sunni/Shi’ite divide and how soon and to what extent it intensifies.