Needlenose

Juan Cole discusses some of the fall-out from the latest blast in Mess-o-potamia.  Given that the blast wounded some members of the Iraqi parliament, Hadi al-Ameri, a member of parliament rightly asks:

“We’ve heard a lot of brouhaha about successes on the security front,” he said. “Where are these successes?”

Good question.  Seems like things are heading South again, with increasingly brazen attacks reminiscent of the Groundhog Days of ‘04 and ‘05.

In the same post, Juan Cole discusses how affairs between the Kurds and the rest of Iraq are heating up around the flashpoint Kirkuk.  Those of you who aren’t afflicted with American Amnesia might remember how we called Kirkuk out as a flashpoint way back when, and how the Kurds have been continuously working to reclaim demographics and control on the ground in this oil-rich city.

I guess with Obama shifting his focus on our other failing occupation, and with our gradual troop removal the Petreus plan to stabilize the Iraqi Civil War is slowly and painfully coming off, like a band-aid on a hairy leg.

Several years ago I suggested that the Kurds could negotiate a deal with Turkey to gain their support for an independent Kurdish state (sorry, haven’t restored those old posts yet).  One of the conditions I had laid out was that Kurdish leaders disavow the Kurdish separatist movement in Turkey.

In fact, it looks like they may be going one step further, and helping negotiate a disarmament of the PKK.  Don’t get distracted by Talabani muttering his support of Iraqi Federalism towards the end of the article, he’s just giving lip service to the concept – I think Barzani’s grumbling over an increasing Iraqi army presence in the ‘disputed zones’ of Kurdistan to be  a better indication of where things stand in that regards.

If Obama is set on leaving troops in the region, and remains attached to the Iraqi Federalism concept, he might consider putting the bulk of the troops in the Kurdish north.

*Update* Turkey ‘acknowledges existance of’ Kurdish Regional Government

Last month I argued against Obama’s emerging broke-ass Afghanistan policy.  It looks like he is going forward with an escalation of 17,000 additional US soldiers.  This, is in the face of our increasingly strangled and expensive supply lines.

And as I argued before, if we are dead set on an Afghanistan escalation (that we will eventually lose), we need to first complete the exit from Iraq.  What could possibly go wrong?  How about the existing tensions between the Kurds and Arabs in Northern Iraq flaring up into a full-on war?  And it sure doesn’t help matters when our tactics involve the accidental, but continual slaughter of civilians from aerial bombardment - instead of winning hearts and minds, you need to pick them up from around the target.

Obama has been variously compared to JFK and Lincoln.  Could we in fact be looking at the Reincarnation of LBJ?

Sad, really.

It looks like the Kurds are preparing for the inevitable dissolution of Iraq following the increasingly likely and potentially more rapid US pullout from Iraq.  Sensing the inevitable, Barzani does some sabre-rattling over Maliki’s plan to legitimize Arab ‘tribal councils.’  

It’s not hard to imagine us getting sucked back in the quicksand.

Unpleasant signs of what Iraq’s future holds continue to pop up in the supposedly “quiet” areas of the country. Reuters reports this from Kurdistan in the north:

At least five Iraqis were killed and more than 20 wounded Wednesday when gunfire erupted during a demonstration in Kirkuk, where Kurds are bidding for more control of the oil-rich northern city.

Several thousand Arab and Turkmen protesters marched on the headquarters of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), one of two main Kurdish factions, and surrounded the building, chanting “No to federalism, Kirkuk is Iraqi.”

Kirkuk’s chief of police said two people were killed in a burst of gunfire. Doctors said three more people died later at a nearby hospital and at least 20 were wounded.

Meanwhile, another Reuters article describes the plight of minority Christians in the Shiite south:

Since the war that toppled Saddam, armed groups have looted and set ablaze several liquor stores in the once freewheeling city, where Shi’ite religious parties now wield power and seek to impose strict moral regulations, similar to Iran’s.

More than 400 liquor stores run by Christians, the only community allowed to sell alcohol under the former Baathist government, were forced to close in the immediate aftermath of the U.S.-led occupation of Iraq.

. . . Iraqi Christians are terrified of armed Shi’ite groups, which have names like God’s Vengeance, God’s Party and the Islamic Bases Organization.

Their members roam the streets to chase mobsters, drug addicts and prostitutes, exacting their brand of what they call God’s law.

The common thread in these stories is ethnic majorities seeking to impose their political and social will by force, with virtually no resistance from the U.S. (which is too busy trying to keep its own troops from being blown up to bother with protecting Iraqi minorities).

Juan Cole has a more extensive roundup of recent news from Basra, including uncontrolled smuggling of oil and illegal drugs that the British openly confess they don’t have the troops to deal with.