Needlenose

Guest post from Spy Buddy:

Kazakhstan is now heading up the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) for 2010, which is ironic since the Associated Press has reported Kazakhstan has almost concluded a deal with Iran to export 1,350 tons of purified uranium ore .

States from Europe, Central Asia and North America to form the largest regional security organization in the
world.  According to the OSCE’s website, that Organization addresses a wide range of security-related issues such as military and human rights.  And we all know that Iran has been determined a rogue state due to its political and military policies (i.e. building nuclear weapons and holding fraudulent elections) and continues its poor human rights records with ordering death sentences to the opposition party as well as raping, torturing and murdering rounded up protesters.

While its chilling to think Iran getting hold of so much uranium its even worse seeing Kazakhstan leading the OSCE since its does little to uphold the organization’s charter. Kazakhstan is ranked 142 out of 174 by
Reporters Without Borders.  Just recently the government jailed Yevgeny Zhovtis-a prominent human rights activist, and in December Gennady Pavlyuk, a Kyrgyz opposition journalist, was apparently
thrown from the sixth-floor window of an apartment with his hands and feet bound with duct tape.

I now understand why Sacha Baron Cohen selected Kazakhstan as the home nation for Borat.

I guess defenestration is making a comeback!

From the Huffington Post liveblogging of the Iranian Revolution in progress, 1:59 PM ET — “Death to Russia!”:

“Traditionally, there’s this guy at the Friday prayers whom people mockingly call ‘vazireh shoaar’, or the minister of slogans. His job is to shout slogans through loudspeakers and lead the crowd to chant death to America or Israel or whoever after him. In this clip you hear the crowd going flatly against him as he desperately cycles through the usual slogans (death to America, death to Israel, death to England and so on), and regardless of what he shouts, the crowd keeps repeating one chant: ‘marg bar roosiyeh’ (Death to Russia) !!”

Isn’t it great to hear a crowd in the Middle East chanting “Death to…” somebody else for a change?

Again via the indefatigable Nico Pitney, a report from Iran’s official (!) PressTV news agency:

Iran’s Guardian Council has admitted that the number of votes collected in 50 cities surpass the number of the people eligible to cast ballot in those areas.

The council’s Spokesman Abbas-Ali Kadkhodaei, who was speaking on the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) Channel 2 on Sunday, made the remarks in response to complaints filed by Mohsen Rezaei — a defeated candidate in the June 12 Presidential election.

“Statistics provided by Mohsen Rezaei in which he claims more than 100% of those eligible have cast their ballot in 170 cities are not accurate — the incident has happened in only 50 cities,” Kadkhodaei said.

The spokesman, however, said that although the vote tally affected by such an irregularity is over 3 million, “it has yet to be determined whether the amount is decisive in the election results” . . .

Hey, so there were at least a few million votes’ worth of fraud — but let’s not jump to the conclusion that it’s any kind of big deal! Somewhere, Antonin Scalia is smiling…

Via Nico Pitney’s indispensable liveblog at the Huffington Post, President Obama has edged a bit further off the sidelines regarding the Iranian post-election protests:

I’m very concerned — based on some of the tenor and tone of the statements that have been made – that the government of Iran recognize that the world is watching. And how they approach and deal with people who are, through peaceful means, trying to be heard will, I think, send a pretty clear signal to the international community about what Iran is and — and is not.

Meanwhile, the immense crowds that have been gathering daily in Tehran and the authoritarian regime they’re protesting against continue to watch each other, waiting to see who will blink first.

Despite threats from “supreme leader” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei of violence in response to further demonstrations, messages of continuing resistance are being passed along via new media (thanks, Attackerman) and word of mouth.

The mood of the protesters seems to be both courageous and fatalistic.  Anecdotes cited in Nico Pitney’s liveblog and elsewhere on HuffPo reveal individuals uncertain of their chances of success — or even survival — and not viewing Mousavi as a savior, but nonetheless recognizing what may be a singular opportunity to affirm that the voice of the people matters in their country.

The government’s reluctance so far to respond with a direct crackdown is explained by Jon Lee Anderson in the New Yorker:

Thirty years ago, during the demonstrations that led to the Shah’s downfall, one of the dominant images was scenes of uniformed soldiers firing live ammunition at protesters. This week, Iran’s clerics seem determined, at least, not to repeat that historic mistake. They remember that the daily news coverage of the Shah’s soldiers shooting and killing unarmed protesters precipitated the collapse of the regime.

The regime’s attempt to quell the dissent has thus been limited to the work of shadowy plainclothes militias, whose thuggery appears to have been met in some instances with reverse vigilantism.

In this context, Obama’s reminder that “the world is watching” is timely and important as a way of (hopefully) deterring wider bloodshed.

(Cross-posted at Firedoglake.)

Iran, surrounded by U.S. military bases (indicated by flags)

You know there’s trouble brewing when stories about intensely contested campaigns begin with this (from the BBC):

The two main candidates in Iran’s presidential election have claimed victory, after extended voting as huge numbers of people turned out to vote.

Reformist challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi told a news conference that he had won by a substantial margin.

However, state media said hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won, and officials said he had got 69% of the five million votes so far counted.

The touting of a big Ahmedinejad lead in the preliminary official tabulations seems to have come in response to Mousavi’s public claim of victory, as Al Arabiya reports:

Meanwhile Ahmadinejad’s supporters refuted such statements as “false” and intended as psychological warfare to affect voter turnout.

“These early statements are meant to influence votes,” Ali Akbar Javanfekr, advisor to Ahmadinejad, told Al Arabiya.

Of course, if that’s what the president’s supporters think, it kind of tips their hand about their proclamations, too, doesn’t it?

Amid the premature and conflicting claims, it’s hard to tell what the truth is yet.  The well-documented massive urban demonstrations for Mousavi, the main challenger to Ahmedinejad, in contrast with the Iranian regime’s authoritarian nature, have led to predictions such as this from the Times of London:

It is widely believed that the 2005 election was marred by fraud and experts estimate that up to four million votes could be rigged this year. However, with the turnout so high, even that may not be enough.

The wide media coverage given to the protests, though, could be misleading.  Because opposition to Ahmedinejad is concentrated among the most urban, educated and affluent voters — the ones who are easiest for foreign journalists to come in contact with — Mousavi’s support may be overstated in the media.

At the same time, when Iranian press agencies are reporting (via the Al Arabiya story linked above) that “participation in Iranian villages reached 90 percent,” it’s reasonable to be suspicious that not all of those votes are legitimate.

Attackerman and Talking Points Memo have been providing analyis of the Iranian elections throughout the day, so check there (as well as more obvious news sources like CNN) for updates as the situation evolves (or devolves).

(Cross-posted at Firedoglake.)

P.S.  Special inside joke for Michael Ledeen fans: The dead are voting!