Looming Hot War?
Always starts like this...
Does the reheating of the North/South Korea conflict, one of the last vestiges of the Cold War, pose the risk of escalating into a Hot War? It seems like the Koreans are ready to have a go at each other. Normally bellicose PRC is urging calm in the region, but it appears they have little control over their old puppet state. Normally (under Obama) peaceful USA gleefully supporting S. Korea sabre-rattling in the form of more military exercises at the flash point.
Japan, meanwhile, seems to have finally woken-up from the threat of China’s recent, rapid military build up of naval & air power (useful primarily for bullying the neighborhood).
My crystal ball is fuzzy here. If S. Korea sinks a ship or two, does the N. Korean regime go down (much as Great Britain’s Falklands was a positive agent of change in Argentina), or does it spark a fierce counter-attack, dragging first China then the US into a Hot War, followed quickly by actions against Taiwan and disputed territories in the S. China Sea?
China’s bellicosity and military build up smacks up against the Einstein maxim that you can’t simultaneously prevent and prepare for war. The bad news for our allies in the region is that China can most likely kick American ass in any short-term ‘limited’ engagement. Worse, I doubt that any military action in the region would stay limited – Dear Leader has nukes, and would most likely use them in the case of an existential threat to his state. No idea if Taiwan (or even Japan for that matter) might have a few secret nukes stashed.
Even a limited regional nuclear exchange would have dramatic climactic consequences.
I’m not really sure there is much the US can do at this point. If we don’t respond firmly, we go down the path of appeasement, forcing our allies to fend for themselves, almost guaranteeing a disastrous outcome down the road. At this point, I think it’s pretty much up to China – either they will start acting like adults, tone down the militarism and bellicosity and promote peace in region, or they will continue down their current path and trigger the inevitable showdown.
*Update 12/23/10* I believe Kim Jong Il reads Needlenose, and made sure today that we are all clear that he considers any threat to be an existential threat worthy of going nuclear.
Stumble it!
Tags: arms race, climate change, disputed territories, Hot War, Japan, military build up, North Korea, nuclear winter, PRC, regional nuclear exchange, South China Seas, South Korea, Taiwan, USA
December 24th, 2010 at 8:19 am
I think China is in control here. If there is a hot war on the peninsula it will occur when they want it to. We do not have any real power left and I don’t think there would be much appetite for a land war in China from the American public.
Fortunately, China probably believes it can do a lot better playing the international trade game & a hot war would hurt the income of the people in charge. It does not need Korea and the seeping wound drains American money and attention. So it stays as is for the time being.