Needlenose

Malthus is alive and well and living in the 3rd World

The UN figures we’ll need to increase food production by 70% over the next 40 years to keep hundreds of millions from starving.  Looking at historical food production trends, it seems like cereal production has sort of kept pace with population growth (although seafood production has pretty much peaked if not actually declined a bit).  But historical trend analysis doesn’t take into account the projected negative impact of global warming on crop production.

Or more immediately, it doesn’t take into account the growing diversion of cereal crops into biofuels (a process actually subsidized by your tax dollars so you can pay more to fill both your tank and your tummy!), nor the challenges of worldwide water stress.

Until now the trends have supported the self-indulgent skeptics (those fortunate enough to live in the developed world at least) who have blithely scoffed the warnings of the food-security crowd.  However we’re looking at a ‘perfect storm’ of factors that will throw ever larger populations of folks in various regions into the food have-not category much earlier than that in the UN 40-year time frame.

*Update* Just to put this in perspective, UN says 1 in 6 people are facing famine today as developed countries both cut food aid and increase biofuel subsidies.

Stumble it!

Tags: biofuels, food production, food security, global warming, water stress

This entry was posted on Tuesday, October 13th, 2009 at 2:08 pm by greenboy and is filed under Food Security. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.