Iraq’s new strongman?
Reidar Visser reports on the provincial election results from Iraq:
The provisional results of the Iraqi local elections, released today, can be summarised in three main points as far as the areas from Baghdad and southwards are concerned: [prime minister Nouri al-]Maliki and his Daawa party are big winners everywhere and particularly so in the big cities of Basra and Baghdad; the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) has been decimated across the country; fragmentation rather than the emergence of a clear secular “third way” is mostly the rule, with the exception of a respectable 9% for Iraqiyya in Baghdad and a couple of local secular successes (including Karbala).
Maliki’s rise is spectacular. His coalition won Basra and Baghdad and came first in every Shiite-dominated governorate except Karbala (where the independent Yusuf al-Hububi won most votes), with results above 35% in Basra and Baghdad,around 23% in Dhi Qar and Qadisiyya, and between 10 and 20% in most other places. . . .
The decline of ISCI is equally remarkable. From a position where it dominated most governorates south of Baghdad it has fallen to a status of a 10% party or less in most places. . . . Of the various pro-Sadrist lists, it is generally the “independent current” (list 284) that has done well, mostly scoring between 5 to 10%.
Ironically, the Dawa party wound up with the prime minister’s post (first with Ibrahim al-Jaafari, then with Maliki) because it was seen as an unthreatening, weak partner by both ISCI and the Sadrists — each of whom saw the other as its main rival for power.
I won’t venture an opinion as to whether Maliki’s reign has been good for Iraq, but in sheer political terms, he’s been masterful at playing both ISCI and the Sadrists against each other and coming out on top. The bad news? Now his party stands to get blamed if they fail to deliver basic services, just as its rivals were this time around.
See Reuters and Marc Lynch for further analysis and commentary.
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