Double-checking Rick Davis’ fuzzy “math”
A few days before the 2006 election, Karl Rove whistled past the soon-to-be graveyard of the Republican majorities in the U.S. House and Senate by telling a reporter: “You may end up with a different math but you are entitled to your math and I’m entitled to THE math.”
That same spirit of denial, making up in arrogance for what it lacks in reason, flows through the campaign memo by McCain strategist Rick Davis that I wrote about last night. For those who were too lazy to click through all the links on that post, I thought I’d revisit the key passages and supply the visual rebuttals I didn’t have time to insert yesterday:
- National Polls: Major polls last week showed John McCain trailing by double-digit margins – but by the middle of this week, we were within the margin of error on four national tracking surveys. In fact, the Gallup national tracking survey showed the race in a virtual tie 2 days this week.
- State Polls: Iowa - Our numbers in Iowa have seen a tremendous surge in the past 10 days. We took Obama’s lead from the double digits to a very close race. That is why you see Barack Obama visiting the state in the final days, trying to stem his losses. It is too little, too late. Like many other Midwestern states, Iowa is moving swiftly into McCain’s column.
The Southwest – It is no secret that Republican candidates in the Southwest have to focus on winning over enough Latino and Hispanic voters in Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado to carry them to victory. John McCain has overcome challenges Republicans face, and has made up tremendous ground in these states with these voters. For these voters, the choice has become clear, and you have seen a big change in the numbers. John McCain is now winning enough voters to perform within the margin of error – putting these states within reach.
Colorado – Barack Obama tried to outspend our campaign in Colorado during the early weeks of October and finish off our candidate in Colorado. However, after our visit early this week, we saw a tremendous rebound in our poll position, and Colorado is back on the map.
Ohio and Pennsylvania – Everyone knows that vote rich Ohio and Pennsylvania will be key battlegrounds for this election. Between the two: 41 electoral votes and no candidate has gotten to the White House without Ohio. Senator McCain and Governor Palin have been campaigning non-stop in these key battleground states and tonight Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has pumped up our campaign at a rally in Columbus. Our position in these states is strong and undecided voters continue to have a very favorable impression of our candidate.
Every picture tells a story, don’t they? Funny how it seems to be the same story in each case.
Stumble it!