Needlenose

This was then (just a few days ago, actually):

Increasingly alarmed by the failure of Iraq’s Governing Council to take decisive action, the Bush administration is developing possible alternatives to the council to ensure that the United States can turn over political power at the same time and pace that troops are withdrawn, according to senior U.S. officials here and in Baghdad.

The United States is deeply frustrated with its hand-picked council members because they have spent more time on their own political or economic interests than in planning for Iraq’s political future, especially selecting a committee to write a new constitution, the officials added. “We’re unhappy with all of them. They’re not acting as a legislative or governing body, and we need to get moving,” said a well-placed U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “They just don’t make decisions when they need to.”

. . . Since the council appointed 25 cabinet ministers in late August, the body has done “nothing of substance,” the U.S. official in Baghdad added. The council has been seriously remiss in oversight of its own ministers, holding public hearings, setting policy for cabinet departments and even communicating with cabinet members, he said.

The United States, which financially and politically backed several of the council members when they were in exile, has also been disillusioned by the council’s inability to communicate with the Iraqi public or gain greater legitimacy. The senior official in Baghdad called the council “inept” at outreach to its own people.

As a result, the council has less credibility today than it did when it was appointed, which has further undermined Iraq’s stability, U.S. officials here and in Baghdad said.

But this is now:

After additional talks at the Pentagon, Bremer left yesterday for Baghdad with two broad options to discuss over the weekend with the council, senior U.S. officials said.

The details were being closely held, in large part because the United States wants the council to participate in the decision. “It doesn’t matter what my options are; what matters is what does the Governing Council think,” Bremer told reporters after meeting Bush yesterday.

Added a senior administration official: “It has to be a process made in Baghdad, not in Washington.”

. . . Bremer and others stressed that the United States does not want to abandon the council, despite a consensus within the administration that its members have failed to live up to expectations or move expeditiously to launch the constitutional process, the first big step in a political transition.

“I have every confidence that we will be able to work with the Governing Council and with the cabinet ministers, going forward,” Bremer said.

But other U.S. officials acknowledged that the current effort will eventually replace the council. “No one is talking about abandoning the council, but the idea is that it will eventually be replaced or absorbed by the new body or bodies. It will take a while to get to a constitutional body and legislature or an executive body, and the council will play a role until then,” said the well-placed official.

There were rumors that the Iraqi Governing Council — or at least some members of it — were intentionally stalling the decision-making process, aware that lack of progress would pressure the Americans to surrender more genuine power, thereby increasing the council’s limited leverage to shape events.

If so, that plan seems to have worked. Unless the Bushites want to essentially admit that they’ve entirely screwed up the post-conquest phase of the Iraq war by scrapping the council and starting over — and we know how reluctant Dubya is to admit he’s wrong — the Governing Council is the only game in town when it comes to a new governmental process that gives the U.S. any say at all.

Sure enough, they’re trying to parlay the U.S. shift into all the power they can grab:

Iraqi political leaders have decided to reject a plan to write a new constitution in the coming months, saying they will propose instead that they immediately assume the powers of a provisional government.

Members of the Iraqi Governing Council said Wednesday that they had reached a consensus that writing a constitution, and electing the drafters of a constitution demanded by the powerful Shiite clergy, would be too divisive now.

They said they would work instead on drafting what they call a “basic law” in the hope that they can win international recognition for an Iraqi government that would take over considerable authority from L. Paul Bremer III, the American administrator or Iraq, and meet conditions laid down by the United Nations Security Council last month.

The new political plan has won the endorsement of most of the major players on the council, including Kurdish political leaders, the powerful Shiite Muslim parties and the minority Sunni Muslim independents, although no formal vote has been taken on it.

The (perhaps literally) cut-throat game of real-life Survivor has moved to a stage where the various players have to irrevocably commit to a strategy, and those who make mistakes may find themselves voted off the island before they realize what’s happened.

This includes a major player who so far has stayed off camera. To return to the second article quoted above:

Until now, however, the council has been deadlocked, partly because of demands by leaders of the majority Shiite Muslim community for national elections. If they vote in a bloc, they could dominate the constitutional process and, some Iraqis and U.S. officials fear, establish rule by Islamic law. The election option is backed by the Ayatollah Hussein Sistani, the most powerful Shiite cleric, who issued a call for all Shiite Muslims to support the vote.

While the local council option is appealing to many council members, “many Shiite members are afraid to stand up to Sistani,” said a senior council official.

Several secular liberals on the Governing Council would prefer that the council pick the constituent assembly. Elections, they believe, are premature because of the lack of national political parties and other civic organizations. Shiite religious groups are the best-organized force in Iraq, they believe, enhancing the chances that Iraq will be declared an Islamic state.

I’m not smart enough to say how this will turn out (yet, anyway!). But these next few weeks may be the ones that determine Iraq’s future for the next several years.

Pssst…is the chopper ready to go?

Looks like Swopa’s recent prediction of a pre-election 2004 troop withdrawal from Iraq was on the money. I can’t imagine that it will be so easy, though; lots of folks in Iraq want the U.S. to stay, including some of the terrorists, who would be bummed to lose their American pinata just as the party got going.

So while King George the Witless spouts crap like “We’re going to prevail. We’ve got a good strategy to deal with these killers,” (huh? more prancing on the old flight deck wearing a cod-piece?), the situation on the ground continues to go downhill.

Elements within the so-called Coalition Government anxious to keep the Americans around can drag out the nation-building process (let’s see if they meet those deadlines). And the terrorists? I imagine that a few attacks on Saudi or Kuwaiti oil pipelines or refineries would do the trick. Or more hits on members of the puppet government. Who can say? But I can’t imagine it will be too hard to keep us around – after all, we Yanks ain’t quitters:

“Two years into the war on terror, the will and resolve of America are being tested, in Afghanistan and in Iraq,” he said. “Again, the world is watching. Again we will be steadfast; we will finish the mission we have begun, period.”

…but if so, it sure doesn’t like Alabamy Good Ol’ Boy & (former) Chief Justice Roy Moore! The little pinhead was just removed from office for ignoring a federal court order to remove his god-stone from the Alabamy State Court rotunda. My prayer has been answered!

I’d like to think that this is now all over, and that Moore might move on to a post more to his liking, but after the ruling against him he was heard muttering cryptically that he had “an announcement next week which could alter the course of this country and the course of our state and our nation.” What, he’s going to launch a campaign to have Alabamy secede from the union and thus start a second civil war?

BTW, on an unrelated topic, Billmon of The Whiskey Bar points to additional evidence of the existance of a benevolent and progressive god.