Needlenose

In the New York Times on Monday, pollster Stan Greenberg bade farewell to the infamous “Reagan Democrats” of Macomb County in Michigan:

For more than 20 years, the non-college-educated white voters in Macomb County have been considered a “national political barometer,” as Ronald Brownstein of National Journal described them during the Democratic convention in August. After Ronald Reagan won the county by a 2-to-1 margin in 1984, Mr. Brownstein noted, I conducted focus groups that “found that these working-class whites interpreted Democratic calls for economic fairness as code for transfer payments to African-Americans.”

I’m sure that the oh-so-honorable McCain campaign had no awareness of this when they ran this ad in the final week of the presidential campaign:

It’s not much of a mystery what unspoken attitudes Team McCain was hoping to evoke with that “JUST LIKE YOU SUSPECTED” line, is it?

I wonder if Mr. “Country First” was sad on election night that the racist vote didn’t come through for him, that many of them finally realized there was something more important than skin color of when it came to presidential candidates.

From NBC Chicago:

Apparently, the first dog is not happy about the impending changes at the White House.

Today, Barney bit a reporter outside the briefing room.  The whole incident was caught on tape by another reporter, April D. Ryan.

“Caught on tape?” Yes, it’s already on YouTube.

Al Kamen of the Washington Post suggests that “Barney may be just protecting his turf from intruders, thinking about the coming intrusion from the promised Obama pooch.” Meanwhile, Jim Galloway of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution says, “Reporters haven’t decided whether Barney was fed up with liberal media bias, depressed by how history is likely to rate his tenure, or was simply enjoying the sense of freedom that comes to any short-timer.”

Personally, though, I think Barney was making a late bid to be Obama’s chief of staff.

Poll analyst extraordinaire Nate Silver wrote on Monday:

It’s amazing how much convergence there has been in the national numbers over the past 24 hours. . . . Has the race settled down some?

Perhaps in some proverbial sense it has. But I also think that pollsters peek at one another’s results, and that there’s something of a herd mentality not to be the one who falls out of line. Remember, folks, it’s these final sets of national numbers that will go down on the record for all time’s sake. Remember also that a pollster has a lot of legitimate wiggle room for how they put their turnout models together. I’m not accusing anyone of anything in particular, but this is the time of year when a lot of pollsters might be tempted to put their fingers on the scale.

In case you’re wondering who Nate was pretending not to talk about, the TIPP poll sponsored by Investor’s Business Daily (an even further right-wing imitator of the Wall Street Journal) showed Barack Obama leading John McCain by a mere 2 points on Sunday, leading to much fantasizing among Republicans about a McCain comeback.

With the actual election closing in on Monday, though, the TIPP/IBD poll suddenly shifted aggressively toward Obama, who soared to a 7-point lead on the strength of its final-day sample and a lopsided “allocation” of undecided voters (2 to 1 in favor of Obama).  The final result brought TIPP into line with all of the other major pollsters, and thus was not embarrassingly far off from Tuesday’s actual voting.  Convenient, eh?

Kudos, by the way, to Silver for projecting the final popular vote within a tenth of a percentage point (52.3% Obama to 46.2% McCain, versus 52.4% to 46.3% in the not-quite-final tallies), and the Pew Research Center, which projected a 52-46 result two days in advance based on its (apparently more scientific) allocation of undecided voters.

In the article linked in the caption contest below, CNN reports on Sarah Palin’s trip home to vote:

Savoring her final solo appearance as a vice presidential candidate, Palin lingered for several minutes in front of local and national media, taking question after question despite multiple attempts by her staff to end the press conference. . .

An hour later . . . a local reporter asked the governor how she envisions her role in national politics if McCain loses the election. Palin did not hesitate to muse about a future that might not include being vice president come January.

“You know, if there is a role in national politics it won’t be so much partisan,” she said. “My efforts have always been here in the state of Alaska to get everybody to unite and work together and progress this state.”

“It would certainly be a uniter type of role,” she added.

Tonight is the first night of the Palin 2012 campaign, and in her typical hamfisted, buzzword-heavy style, she’s already beginning the image makeover I envisioned yesterday.

I wouldn’t be surprised if after spending the last two months evading impromptu TV interviews where she might be asked embarrassing questions about the issues, Palin is all over the airwaves tonight now that the subject will be something she cares more about — herself and her political future.

Update 1: (7:35 pm PT) Will Palin be the one who gives the formal concession announcement as McCain sulks silently in defeat?

Update 2: (8:35 pm PT) Okay, scratch that thought.

Hey… remember that investigation that found Sarah Palin had abused her power in Alaska by trying (along with her husband) to get her brother-in-law fired from his job as a state trooper?  You probably do, but just barely, right?  For better or worse, there’s just too much else going on with regard to the election to obsess over a minor scandal like that.

Palin seems to think differently, though.  Via Progressive Alaska, the second investigation into the trooper brouhaha — you know, the one Palin initiated herself to obscure the first one — has seen fit to announce its findings on election eve.   Not surprisingly, it clears Palin in every conceivable way.

But since (to put it gently) the election isn’t exactly hanging in the balance over this issue, why was it so important to get the announcement in before tomorrow night’s vote-counting?  To put it simply, because the end of the 2008 race marks the first day of the 2012 campaign… for Palin, anyway.

Particularly if McCain/Palin and other Republicans absorb their expected collective defeat early in the evening, there will be hours of pundit speculation that could shape the early conventional wisdom about possible Republican contenders for the ’12 nomination.  Tonight’s report is a bit of housecleaning to give Palin’s advocates one more talking point — if anyone mentions the ethical cloud over her record as governor of Alaska, they can now claim that it’s been dispersed.

And Atrios and Josh Marshall‘s skepticism notwithstanding, I wouldn’t discount Palin’s chances of mounting a comeback in four years, even if she and McCain lose in a landslide tomorrow.  I wrote four years ago about the GOP’s dim prospects in 2008 because they lacked a candidate who could pull of the Reagan trick of putting an unthreatening face on the permanent Republican agenda of shoveling more money to rich people/corporations — someone who pretend to be “just folks” but also had high name recognition so their personality could overshadow their (plutocratic) policies.

Palin is not only aware of this role, she’s openly auditioned to fill it, simultaneously cultivating the support of GOP opinionmakers along with her faux-outsider image (as documented extensively by Jane Mayer in the New Yorker).

So what if she’s seen as a know-nothing object of ridicule who helped drag McCain down to defeat?  Thanks to Bill Kristol and Tina Fey, she’s got the name recognition she’ll need, and four years is plenty of time for a Nixon-style reinvention.  If she’s willing to do the homework of developing at least a superficial knowledge of the issues. she can position herself as being wiser but still in touch with her “hockey mom” roots.

Granted, though, that’s a big if.  Her current running mate couldn’t be bothered with learning anything beyond slogans about economic policy even as the Wall Street meltdown all but handed Obama the presidency, and the GOP nominee before him — the one who’s in the White House now — well, we know all about his dislike of thinking about anything.

If Palin’s as narcissistic as McCain and Bush, she may very well flame out before the presidential cycle gets serious in 2012.  But if her searing ambition is matched by any kind of work ethic, I’d say we haven’t heard the last of her.

A few days before the 2006 election, Karl Rove whistled past the soon-to-be graveyard of the Republican majorities in the U.S. House and Senate by telling a reporter: “You may end up with a different math but you are entitled to your math and I’m entitled to THE math.”

That same spirit of denial, making up in arrogance for what it lacks in reason, flows through the campaign memo by McCain strategist Rick Davis that I wrote about last night.  For those who were too lazy to click through all the links on that post, I thought I’d revisit the key passages and supply the visual rebuttals I didn’t have time to insert yesterday:

• National Polls: Major polls last week showed John McCain trailing by double-digit margins – but by the middle of this week, we were within the margin of error on four national tracking surveys. In fact, the Gallup national tracking survey showed the race in a virtual tie 2 days this week.

• State Polls: Iowa - Our numbers in Iowa have seen a tremendous surge in the past 10 days. We took Obama’s lead from the double digits to a very close race. That is why you see Barack Obama visiting the state in the final days, trying to stem his losses. It is too little, too late. Like many other Midwestern states, Iowa is moving swiftly into McCain’s column.

The Southwest – It is no secret that Republican candidates in the Southwest have to focus on winning over enough Latino and Hispanic voters in Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado to carry them to victory. John McCain has overcome challenges Republicans face, and has made up tremendous ground in these states with these voters. For these voters, the choice has become clear, and you have seen a big change in the numbers. John McCain is now winning enough voters to perform within the margin of error – putting these states within reach.

Colorado – Barack Obama tried to outspend our campaign in Colorado during the early weeks of October and finish off our candidate in Colorado. However, after our visit early this week, we saw a tremendous rebound in our poll position, and Colorado is back on the map.

Ohio and Pennsylvania – Everyone knows that vote rich Ohio and Pennsylvania will be key battlegrounds for this election. Between the two: 41 electoral votes and no candidate has gotten to the White House without Ohio. Senator McCain and Governor Palin have been campaigning non-stop in these key battleground states and tonight Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has pumped up our campaign at a rally in Columbus. Our position in these states is strong and undecided voters continue to have a very favorable impression of our candidate.

Every picture tells a story, don’t they? Funny how it seems to be the same story in each case.

A modest treat from the Obama campaign is above, and here’s a bit of a trick from Team McCain:

We believe this race is winnable, and if the trajectory continues, we will surpass the 270 Electoral votes needed on Election Night.

• National Polls: Major polls last week showed John McCain trailing by double-digit margins – but by the middle of this week, we were within the margin of error on four national tracking surveys. In fact, the Gallup national tracking survey showed the race in a virtual tie 2 days this week.
• State Polls: Iowa - Our numbers in Iowa have seen a tremendous surge in the past 10 days. We took Obama’s lead from the double digits to a very close race. That is why you see Barack Obama visiting the state in the final days, trying to stem his losses. It is too little, too late. Like many other Midwestern states, Iowa is moving swiftly into McCain’s column.
  The Southwest – It is no secret that Republican candidates in the Southwest have to focus on winning over enough Latino and Hispanic voters in Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado to carry them to victory. John McCain has overcome challenges Republicans face, and has made up tremendous ground in these states with these voters. For these voters, the choice has become clear, and you have seen a big change in the numbers. John McCain is now winning enough voters to perform within the margin of error – putting these states within reach.
  Colorado – Barack Obama tried to outspend our campaign in Colorado during the early weeks of October and finish off our candidate in Colorado. However, after our visit early this week, we saw a tremendous rebound in our poll position, and Colorado is back on the map.
  Ohio and Pennsylvania – Everyone knows that vote rich Ohio and Pennsylvania will be key battlegrounds for this election. Between the two: 41 electoral votes and no candidate has gotten to the White House without Ohio. Senator McCain and Governor Palin have been campaigning non-stop in these key battleground states and tonight Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has pumped up our campaign at a rally in Columbus. Our position in these states is strong and undecided voters continue to have a very favorable impression of our candidate.

Obama campaign faces tremendous structural challenges in the final days of this campaign

• Obama has a challenge hitting 50%: Barack Obama has not reached the 50% threshold in almost any the battleground state. He consistently is performing in the 45-48% range. When we look closely at the primary votes, we see a history of a candidate whose Election Day performance is often at or behind his final polling numbers. If this is true, our surge will leave Obama with even or under 50% of the vote on Election Day.
  
• Early Vote: The Obama campaign has promised that their early vote and absentee efforts will change the composition of the electorate. They have sold the press on a story that first time voters will turn out in droves this election cycle. Again, the facts undermine their argument. In our analysis of early voting and absentee votes to date: The composition of the electorate has not changed significantly and most folks who have voted early are high propensity voters who would have voted regardless of the high interest in this campaign.
  
• Expanding the Field: Obama is running out of states if you follow out a traditional model. Today, he expanded his buy into North Dakota, Georgia and Arizona in an attempt to widen the playing field and find his 270 Electoral Votes. This is a very tall order and trying to expand into new states in the final hours shows he doesn’t have the votes to win.. . .

On the Ground

Our field organization has tremendous energy and is out-performing the Bush campaign at the same time in 2004. This week our field organization crossed a huge threshold and began reaching more than one million voters per day, and by week’s end will have contacted more than 5 million voters. Our phone centers are full and our rate of voter contact is significantly out-pacing the Bush campaign in 2004.

Ha, ha, ha — funny stuff, guys! (Check out the links for the punch lines.)

Update: As Josh Marshall notes, the most hilarious bit of creative spin here is the notion that Obama’s ramped-up efforts in once-solid (but now unexpectedly competitive) McCain states like North Dakota, Georgia, and Arizona “shows he doesn’t have the votes to win” — as if Team Barack had given up hope of holding off the McCain juggernaut in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, Iowa, and other states where Obama’s already in the lead, and instead is looking to turn the tide in states where he’s still trailing.

It’s one of the clues that Rick Davis is just making up BS and hoping someone falls for it, rather than describing a genuine comeback.  Another is where Davis gets carried away about imaginary private polling numbers from Iowa; rather than just describing McCain’s position in the state as “strong,” within reach,” or “back on the map,” as he does elsewhere, Davis says, “Like many other Midwestern states, Iowa is moving swiftly into McCain’s column.” Which other Midwestern states, Davis forgets to explain.

One of the most impressive things about Barack Obama’s lead in the presidential race is that he’s been able to maintain it for so long without while keeping their powder dry on a number of fronts — no ads about McCain’s disastrous choice of a running mate, for example.

But I guess the polls really must be tightening a bit now, because they’re going there:

I think this is the first ad I’ve seen all year with a punch line.

Shortpacked! today:

(Tip of the ‘Nose to Eli at Multi-Medium)