A few days before the election, DailyKos ran a feature where they asked participants to guess the outcome of the election. Here are mine:
The House and Senate races haven’t settled yet (and I should add, for the Senate I wasn’t counting Lieberman or Sanders). But as of today (November 19, 2008) here’s the score:
How did you do?
The percentages aren’t final yet, but it looks like it’s a six-point spread with Obama beating McCain 52% to 46%. In terms of delegate count the current count stands at 349-163. If current trends hold, MO’s 11 delegates will go to McCain and NC’s 15 will go to Obama, for a total of 364-174 (for the record, on the DailyKos vote prediction contest, I pulled out of my ass predicted 365-173 — so suck on that Nostradamus!)
In the next few days, the talk will inevitably go to the nebulous concept of mandate. The Republicans, naturally, will be grasping at anything that can bring that into question (never mind the fact that Bush claimed one after beating Kerry by a mere 51%-48%). Since it’s hard to argue with the reality of population and delegate counts, we are certain to hear arbitrary metrics like the proportion of red vs. blue states (there are unconfirmed reports that Tom Brokaw was taking that one out for a spin this morning). This might have probably held more water four years ago:
But even that’s turned weak this time around:
Nevertheless, you can bet that the total land-mass argument will be trotted out, to which we submit this counterpoint:
Beware the kiss of death.
2000:
2008: